Mexico faces a choice with far-reaching diplomatic and geopolitical ramifications as it decides whether to resume oil exports to Cuba despite President Donald Trump‘s threat to hit the communist nation’s trade partners with tariffs.
The ultimatum presents a major decision point for Mexico, whose leader President Claudia Sheinbaum has sought closer ties to left-wing countries in Latin America but has so far managed to maintain a working relationship with Trump.
“Obviously, we don’t want sanctions against Mexico,” Sheinbaum said Friday, explaining that she is trying to negotiate with Trump.
Mexico entered the Trump administration’s crosshairs after it became Cuba’s main source for oil after the U.S. captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and stopped shipments of Venezuelan oil to Havana.
In mid-January, Mexico temporarily halted oil shipments to Cuba, although it maintained that the decision was not made because of pressure from Trump.
Shortly afterward, Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs on goods from countries that sell or provide oil to Cuba.
This week, though, the CEO of Pemex, Mexico’s national oil company, Victor Rodriguez, said that Mexico would maintain exports to Cuba for as long as there was available product, according to Reuters. He also said that the company supplied oil and petroleum products to Cuba worth $496 million last year.
Resuming the shipments could be a major step backward in Mexico’s relations with Trump. Last year, Sheinbaum succeeded in reaching agreements to stave off tariffs threatened by Trump. Mexico is the top trading partner of the United States.
Now, though, the Trump administration is seeking new leverage to remove the communist regime in Cuba. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently said the administration would “love” to see a regime change in Cuba.
“I think we would love to see the regime there change,” Rubio said at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing last month.
“That doesn’t mean we are going to make a change, but we would love to see a change,” he said. “There’s no doubt about the fact that it would be of great benefit to the U.S. if Cuba was no longer governed by an autocratic regime.”
And the situation in Cuba is becoming dire. A shortage of fuel in Cuba has led to blackouts across the country, including in the capital, Havana, and has also affected food prices and transportation. Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel said on Thursday that the government would announce a plan next week to address the fuel shortages, Reuters reported.
“[The U.S. blockade] affects public transportation, hospitals, schools, the economy, and tourism,” Diaz-Canel said in a televised press conference. “How do we till our soil? How do we move around? How do we keep our kids in classes without fuel?
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“We are going to take measures that, while not permanent, will require effort. Some … are restrictive, requiring us to adjust consumption and promote savings,” he said. “There are things we have to stop, or postpone, in order to continue functioning in essential areas.”
